Hi there… it’s been a while since I last posted. Vacation, coupled with a lack of action in the tropics, sort of put the brakes on the blog. But I’m back. Ready for work and whatever the day may bring. Cannot believe it’s August already. Can you? School starts soon, football season is one month away. The bummer to all this that we are just now entering the meat of hurricane season. Everyone knows the season offically starts on June 1st. But in reality most of the action, especially the major storms, occurs between August 15th and October 15th. The absolute peak of the season is September 10th. 

This season has been VERY quite… so far.  Even by El Nino season standards, this is a slow one. The last few El Nino seasons have popped at least two systems by now. Go look at data from1997, 2002, 2006 – those seasons were slow but much more active than what we have seen so far. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t want hurricanes to start popping up everywhere. I just know that some day soon we will have something to talk about. I don’t think we’ll end up with 3 systems tracking at once like last year. But I do think we are about a week to 10 days away from our first named storm. I’ll be really surprised if we make it all the way to Labor Day without a named storm.

Tomorrow the folks at Colorado State University, Klotzbach and Gray, will put out their latest season forecast. This time, and new to this season, they are going to be putting out a two week forecast. I’m anxious to see what they are thinking… my money bets they’ll be looking at the 15th for a named storm to pop. I’ll let you know tomorrow. If you want  perspective on how these “forecasts” come out and then play out, let’s look at one from  August 10, 2004. The season had been a little slow at that point. NOAA put out this statement. They were dead on with “An Active Season Likely”. The season turned ugly and we had 3 hurricanes in about 44 days roar across Central Florida. Unlike that season, we are not in a drought right now. Central Florida is green all over and we’ve done well with recent rains.  Here’s to hoping that our hurricane season remain relatively quiet.

While we are on the subject. If you have a good story you’d like to share about yourexperiences during the 2004 hurricane season (ie – Charley,Frances, Jeanne) we’d love to hear it. Email it to us at ldenberg@wkmg.com.

Advertisements