Earlier this week the new forecast for the rest of the hurricane season came out. First up, the folks at Colorado State University. The Klotzbach and Gray forecast has lowered the numbers to 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 of which will be major storms. They are citing the El Nino for the lower numbers. NOAA also updated its forecast.  NOAA’s numbers are always presented in a range form. They call for 7 to 11 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major storms. In my hurricane presentations this is where I usually say, “It’s tough to get a straight answer from the government.”  NOAA is also citing the El Nino as a main player in the reduced number.  Either way, I’m diggin’ the slower season. As usual I have to take this time to remind you that it only takes one storm to make it a horrible season if that one storm hits you. Andrew hit late in a slow, El Nino-influenced season. Enough said.

If you were watching last night at 11 you saw me focus on a wave now around 52-54 W that will be approaching the Bahamas within the next 4 days. Still a bit of shear to deal with, but it looks like it could have a chance to make some noise maybe by Thursday or Friday of next week.  There is also a big wave coming off the African coast. This wave is not having to battle as much Saharan dust. The big wave that died there Wednesday cleared some of the dust away. I point this out because now it is going to get easier to the next few waves, starting with this one, to develop.  I don’t want to see the African Wave Train get cranked up… but it looks like it’s trying.

Finally, there is a HUGE hurricane in the pacific and it’s heading right for Hawaii. On Thursday Hurricane Felicia was a cat 4. As I’m writing this it has winds of 90 mph. By the time of landfall late Monday/early Tuesday it will only be a depression with winds of 40 mph. Still, that is not going to be a Chamber of Commerce kind of day on the Big Island. I’m looking forward to seeing what kind of surfer video we get for the 11 o’clock news Monday night.

Advertisements