Crazy action in the tropics. If you watched last night at 11 on Local 6, Meteorologist Elizabeth Hart and I were discussing the fact that we REALLY dodged a bullet with Claudette. I still feel that way this afternoon. Friday we were talking on this blog about the possibility of the wave making some noise in the Gulf. And just like we were in charge, it rounded the corner and blew up this weekend. Right now its still making some rain for the Gulf

Hurricane Bill is going to be the big headline grabber for the next few days. It’s already packing winds of 90 mph or better. The only good thing about that storm is that it would  appear to not have Florida on its mind. Check out the models for Bill below.

That’s honestly the kind of model package I dream about for this kind of storm. It is HUGE, it is not heading our way, and there is good model agreement through the 5 day run. Nice… for now. Of course if you have people or property in Bermuda, it’s a different story. Keep in mind these models have been pretty consistent from run to run. However, they may start to drift once Bill makes a turn. The nightmare for the East coast would be for Bill to swing west and smash the NE coast of the US somewhere north of the Carolinas. Right now that doesn’t look likely.

Which brings us to T.D. Ana.

These models for Ana DO raise a Red Flag… maybe two or three. First of all, anytime we get a pocket of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico things get weird here in Central Florida. (If Claudette had one more day to grow she would have made us shake with bigger storms and tornado threats.) Notice that the models of Ana are NOT packed too tightly together. The mountians of Hispanola are going to work this system over pretty well. Then if the low really does run the length of Cuba, it will be weakened more. But then the spread of models after that is what is so concerning. If this system holds together into the Gulf, it will have a better shot than Claudette did… especially if it makes a run farther out to the west. The longer it can stay over water the better chance to grow. If it does grow, then we get nasty feeder bands, tornado threats and the whole nine yards by the end of this week.

On a brighter note… the islands may really put a nail in the coffin for Ana. After that run over Hispanola  AND Cuba there may be nothing left. If the system moves too close to Florida and not west to the Gulf it won’t have any chance to ramp up and we get a bit of rain.

Coming up tonight on The Six O’clock news we’ll show all the models, new locations of the storms, and paths of movment.  Just leave now knowing that Bill is HUGE but he is not our problem…and Ana is small, but NOT to be trusted.

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