Watching the development of this new Tropical Storm has been painful. The whole thing is kind of a mess. Yesterday the hurricane hunters flew into the system and found some strong wind but no center of circulation. Early on Wednesday(the 11 a.m. advisory) the TPC gave it a name.  Then tonight, 12 hours after naming it Tropical Storm Danny, the TPC issues the advisory that the center seems to be re-forming. Take a look at the loop. Now you tell me, where is the center? Hard to pick it out, eh? That’ s why the recon flights will always rule. Sat shots and loop are great, but being inside the system tells the story.

Here are the latest model runs.

Keep in mind they may ALL be junk if the eye reforms farther north and east near the convection…or if the center shows up west. Either way, the storm is bound for the north and wont have a strike on Florida.  This set does give you one more reason NOT to move to Nova Scotia. Can you believe they are facing a second tropical threat on back to back weekends? It’s wild. Not as wild as what we suffered in 2004, but still wild.

As of this writing T. S. Danny looks like an early season storm. It looks all right sided. That is to say the center is somewhere trying to establish itself and the big winds are not near the center. All of the big convection is to the right side, or north and east, of the center. In plain English it just looks sick. Like maybe it wont develop. That’s what systems usually look like in late May or early June. By August 26th and 27th they usually ramp up easier. Until Danny can get the circulation closer the to outflow its not going to look healthy. Come Friday afternoon we should see a better developed storm.

Impacts from T.S. Danny on Florida? Kinda of like what Hurricane Bill did last week…only not as strong. Danny will be about 100-150 miles closer. But, as I just discussed, its not nearly the storm Bill was. Our waves should max at about 6 ft. early Friday and lower as the weekend wears on.  Still good for the surfers. Rip Currents are also back for the weekend. Keep the little ones out of the waves.

I’m going to go sleep now. Check back tomorrow.

Have A Sunny Day!

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