As of 5 p.m. this afternoon we now officiallyhave T.S. Erika in the Atlantic. The official pronunciation guide from the National Hurricane Center says to pronounce this one ERR-ree-ka… it feels goofy.  I say you can pronounce it Eric-ka if you want. Just know where it is.

To take a look at it, click here.

It looks pretty well put together. Earlier it was a two-headed monster. Now it seems to be pulling itself together a bit and has taken on one center. We’ll see how much it can do tomorrow.

In the meantime, a bit of dry air is about the only thing slowing this system down. The dry air can be seen on this shot. There has also been some shear into the system, but the dry air seems to be keeping it from growing fast.

Below you can check out the models.  Between now and the weekend, we’ll still be holding our breath. But keep in mind, this system is still a week away. The path from the Hurricane Center is going to change from run to run. The worst case is we have to start making plans for a storm; best case – it bring us waves like Hurricane Bill did. The 5-day forecast is likely to change by tomorrow morning. The models will lock on to the center, if the center is easier to find, and do a better job. The models almost always do better with a storm that is developed and moving than with a storm with no real center or one that is drifting or stationary.

Things to take from this: Storm is a week away, the path will change some in coming days, and it never hurts to get ready early. How much water do you have in your house?

I’ll pop in a quick update after the 11 p.m. path comes out. In the meantime – start practicing that correct pronunciation.

Tom

 

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