This morning the latest path for T.S. Erika hasn’t changed much.

Forecast Cone

Hurricane Hunters flew into the system and found it be pretty disorganized. It’s still trying to dance around with more than one center. As long as it does that, it’s not going to get stronger. I think today it will do better.

How does it look? I think it “looks” better than it is. The convection is strong. The visible sat shot is right here.

The truth is this storm is in a position to be a player in the weather along the East Coast next week by Tuesday or Wednesday. Naturally I don’t want it near Florida, but it looks like it’s going to be too close for comfort. We will have to watch this one longer and closer that we did with Bill. But until it gets the center of rotation figured out and starts moving faster, the path of projected movement is kind of wide open.

If the system goes too far south, like some of these new runs, it will battle dry air and the islands. The more it goes north the stronger it will be.

Next update is at 11…

talk soon,

TS

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