The 5 o’clock update from the Hurricane Center moved the path of T.S. Erika over to the west and takes the system right over Puerto Rico and then along the northern edge of Hispaniola. Forecast Cone

After Sunday, the system is set to die or just fall apart. That would be GREAT! Only, I don’t really trust it just yet. I am impressed with the damage the dry air and the shear has done. I just don’t  trust the system to give up. We’ve already seen how quickly things can change this season. Three weeks ago when three waves popped at once we saw a wave come over South Florida and become a named storm overnight. If T.S. Erika makes it north of Hispaniola, it will have a fighting chance.  Keep in mind the models are not in total agreement just yet.

The GFDL takes it south of the islands and just kills the storm. I do hope so. I was on the Philips Phile program on Real Radio 104.1 this afternoon. While talking with Jim Philips I said, “Jim no storm ever goes over Hispaniola and comes out the better for it.”  The GFDL knows it … that’s why that model is killing the system. Jim Philips has been around hurricanes long enough to know the deal. His big question was about the Labor Day weekend.  For now just know there is NO reason to change any of your Labor Day plans. If Erika did do a worst case, grow up and threaten the coast, it would be a Tuesday event. That means Sunday and Monday would be fine.

I’m going to go track more rain for now….we’ll check the next update at 11.

Tom

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