Still watching Fred….this system doesn’t really have the name Fred. It lost its name more than a week ago. However, it does still have a touch of spin and some new convection. 

What is left of Fred

What is left of Fred

 

 

 

This convection looks REALLY impressive right now..but as the day wears on I expect the shear to do a number on the clouds. I think that if Fred is going to truly re-develop, as in get its name back, that wont happen until Monday. The tale of the tape is how much shear can damage the system today before it hits less shear tonight and tomorrow.

Chances for re-developement? It’s a roll of the dice. As you have heard me say time and time again the current ability of forecast models to predict the path of a system is good. Our ability to forecast intensity, not so good. This is one of two worst case scenarios that always scare me. The absolute worst case for us a Hugo or Andrew style system barreling down on us from the east with no way out. The second scary situation is this one. It’s a weekend, people are distracted by football and a forgotten system blows up suddenly, with fast development near the coast and Monday turns out to be a bad day. Now with that said I dont think this can get back to hurricane strength. I do think it will grow tomorrow and become either a tropical depression or get the name Fred back.

The South Florida Water Management District is where I usually get the model page for this blog. For some reason they appear to do be down this morning. So I took this shot from hurricanealley.net hope they dont mind.

The arrival of the system would be late Monday into Tuesday. The hurricane hunters are set to go and check it out this afternoon. I’ll check back in with an update when I get that information. Here’s to hoping they find nothing…but I know the circulation has been there all along. I’ll wait until they make the call.

Gator Game Day. Okay, it rained all last week during football. Today the game kickoff is set for just after 3:30. As I wrote yesterday the game will have showers around. Best guess is right about 4 p.m. and another chance around 8. Good luck staying dry. I’m going to watch it on WKMG Local 6 from the comfort of my sofa.

UCF Game Day. Same drill only the showers start much earlier here. Might dampen the tailgate party.  Then maybe a lingering shower around 8 p.m. Yesterday I  got grief from Knight fans for not having UCF in the title of the blog…won’t happen again. I LOVE the Knights.

Okay, gotta go. It’s Saturday and I promised the kids we’d do Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs before football takes over my day.

Keep on the Sunny Side!

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