What a day. The official start of summer! Okay, it’s really never much to celebrate around Central Florida. It’s been “summer” here since way back in May. However, the days are getting shorter and the nights are getting longer. Eventually we’ll get back to the easy days of the dry season. But, before we do, the Tropical season has to be dealt with. It’s starting to look like it’s “game time.”

Take a look at Invest 93:

Last night at this time the Hurricane Center was giving this wave about a 20% chance of becoming a tropical system in 48 hours. This afternoon that went up to 30%… now it stands at 50%. It’s becoming more impressive. By Thursday afternoon, Friday at the latest, we should have our first named system. The first name is Alex.

The models for the system vary a bit at the end of 5 days. Take a look at them:

Now keep in mind,  most waves in June that become tropical systems do go into the Gulf. It looks very likely that the Gulf is where this wave is bound. It’s after day 5 that we’ll start to know how big will it get and where will it go.  History tells us the most common tracks in June are close to the west coast of Florida or across the Gulf toward Texas.

I’d pick the latter if my picking would make any difference.  One thing I do know: tropical systems are like children. They have some things in common, but each one does what it wants to do. So the history only tells us so much. The future may be quite different.

 Either way, it’s looking like the tropics are about to be the “Star Of The Show.”  This will be big news on all weathercasts for the next few days. We’ll be tracking the development on Local 6 and JustWeather.com as it happens. And, of course, it will all be tied into the oil spill. The last thing we need is for a tropical system to push more oil toward the coast.

I’ll have the latest information on the system tonight at 11 on Local 6.

 

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