Holy Smokes, it’s June 1st. Where did May go? Seems like last week we were wrapping up the Kentucky Derby and now it’s the first day of hurricane season.  I have to admit I’m at a point in my life where things are passing about twice (or maybe 3 times) as fast as they should. It’s all a part of getting older.

This is the day every year when I have to look in the mirror and say “okay, just hang in there until October.”  The next four months are tough. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the toughest part is usually August and September. By October things begin to slow down. In October I can see light at the end of the tunnel. The first cold front arrives in October and life gets a lot easier. Football season is in full swing.  Yep, I’d take October over June any day, all day.  

With that said, it is time to address the 2011 hurricane season.

If you missed the Local 6 Special “Surviving The Storms,” just click here. It runs about an hour. If you only have a couple of minutes, click on the link and fast forward until you hit the Elizabeth Hart piece on the Hurricane Hunters. It’s very cool, I think you’ll like it.

The forecast from Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray  calls for an above average season. So does the NOAA forecast. But when all is said and done the only forecast that really matters is the one that says a hurricane is going to hit YOU! We are at the level of skill in forecasting that the seasonal forecast gets close in most years. We are NO WHERE near being able to forecast in advance where the storms will tend to strike. Worst than that, when we do have a system to track, our models do not do a very good job of forecasting the intensity of the system but we do have confidence in the track. The strength or category of what the storm will become not so much. There is still much we have to learn about hurricanes… weather in general for that matter.

Today we have a system moving in from the northeast. It’s an invest. Remember what an invest is? It’s an area that the hurricane center decided to give special attention. It will be “investigated,” tracked, monitored. The hurricane center will run models on it. Some grow up to be storms. Some go on to be nothing. This is one that has not grown up. It will, however, bring us much-needed rain and some wind through the afternoon.  As I’m writing this the first showers are arriving in Flagler and Volusia counties.

Track the action right here.

Once we get past the rain today we return to dry and hot conditions for the weekend.

I don’t mind the heat… as long as the hurricanes stay away.

Here’s to a calm season. I’ll check back in later as today’s storms roll across the area.

Tom Sorrells

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