Good Morning. I just walked my dog and lordy is it hot already. I can almost always judge the kind of day it’s going to be based on my dog’s reaction to the morning. This morning he was in NO mood to walk. That tells me it’s going to be a long hot day. Of course, some days he perks right up and walks like a champ and then the afternoons turn out to be stormy. I guess what I’m trying to say is Boots is really good at current conditions, i.e. now-casting. Not so good at forecasting for later. Either way, it’s hot, and my dog hates it.

Tropics. Okay, it’s day  5 of the Tropical Storm season. So far, so good. The last invest did not grow up to be anything. That was invest 91 that rolled right over us and brought rain last week. Great to get the rain, even greater that the storm never developed into anything bigger. Right now we are watching invest 94. It is in the western Caribbean. This is a satellite shot from JustWeather.com

Overnight the system became a little better organized. Right now the Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 48 hours. It’s a game of wait and see. As you look at the system just know that it, like most systems this early, will be a right-handed system. That means all the action will develop to the right-hand side of the center. We’ll be watching and waiting all week-long with this one. It shouldn’t ramp up quickly. It will take some time for it to do whatever it’s going to do. Check out the latest models for it. There is no consensus and the models look like a squashed bug.

The area is always worth watching this time of year. See graphics below:

The pic on the top is the formation grounds and tracks for most June systems. The one on the bottom I ripped from one of my favorite guys Max Mayfield. Max also writes a blog for JustWeather.com and is part of team coverage for our sister station WPLG in Miami.  This graphic show the actual formation points of every June system (tropical and sub-tropical)  since 1851. How cool is that?

Alright I need to do family time now.

Todays forecast: High 92…almost no chance for rain. The blue sky means there is still dry air aloft, and you will have wind from the E/NE 5-10 mph.

Enjoy! I’ll check back in later.

TS

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