We passed a big anniversary this past weekend. Saturday was August 13th, that is always a strange day for me because it always means Hurricane Charley.  It’s now been 7 years since Charley blasted through Central Florida.  I try not to focus on the date so much, but I was spending the weekend down at the Gulf watching nice, calm and VERY warm water. The sunsets this weekend were just amazing.

 

 

 

 

 

While I was sitting there on the beach I mentioned that it was the anniversary of Charley to my family. We talked about it for a few minutes, then moved on. I was struck by just how nice the weather was this August 13th vs. August 13th of 2004.  Then I got to thinking about how a type of “Hurricane Amnesia” has taken over here in Central Florida. After 2004 just about everyone was concerned with hurricane season. I’m just not sure that is the case today. I think most people here are simply NOT  prepared. I don’t believe most people have enough water, food, cooking supplies, and battery power to be on their own, with no government help, for  3 to 7 days (or in some cases MUCH longer).  So, with that in mind, let me show you what is happening right now in the Atlantic and why I believe the hurricane season is about to get serious.

So far this season things have been active, just not strong. As of this writing (Tuesday August 16th) we have Tropical Storm Gert racing away from us to the NE into the open waters of the Atlantic. That makes 7 named storms already and not a single one of them has made it to “hurricane” status. That’s a record of sorts… it’s never happened that way before. But here’s where things get serious.

The actual peak of hurricane season is September 10th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We always talk about the “season” running from June 1st until November 30th, but the bulk of the action happens in the next 2 months.

Check out the current set for action.

Sea surface temps are REALLY warm

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now take a look at the areas for development today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, that looks peaceful enough. But notice ALL of those waves between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. That looks like a HUGE wave train. The waves are there, the surface temps are warm, the meat of the season is upon us… it’s about to get WILD!

What does wild mean to me? It means we are about to see hurricanes, not just tropical storms, and plenty of them named in the next 6 weeks. The first 7 names were gentle this year.  I believe there is no way the next 7 will be. I believe we’ll have 3 of these hurricanes go cat 3 before the end of September. We will have two or three out there at one time. I really believe it’s “Showtime” for the Atlantic season.

The last reason I’m convinced the season is about to crank up is the Madden Julian Oscillation is about to pulse around to the Atlantic. When we get the “pulse” over our side of the world the waves get stronger and the season gets meaner.

And one final note: For some reason the name Hurricane Jose scares me. Not that I can explain it, it just sounds like a Hugo, or Andrew, or something really mean.

Here’s to hoping that I am WAY big wrong and the season slows down from here. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

See you tonight at 5, 5:30, 6, 7 and 11 on Local 6 News.

Advertisements