Yes, really.

Today is September 10th.  Usually this is where I tell everyone to “take a breath, it gets easier from here.” This year not so much.
peakofseason

So far this year the easy part is behind us. The action has been delayed by a host of items including too much shear at the right spots, too much dry air over the Atlantic, and a series of systems that battled each other for development.

Today we have T.S. Humberto. If all goes as projected, Humberto will become the first hurricane of the 2013 season sometime tonight. That’s really late. Since 1960 the latest date the first hurricane of the season has ever formed is September 11th. That happened back in 2002 when Hurricane Gustav finally came to life. That season there were 5 more storms, and one Tropical Depression,  after Gustav. Two of those, Isidore and Lili, were nasty hurricanes and became retired names.  So if you use 2002 as a guide, and that’s a random guide, we could easily have 5 or 6 more systems to track before shutting the season down.

Keep in mind there have been hurricane seasons in the past where no storms were known to form, but that was before the satellites were flying. Back in those days there very well could have been hurricanes that were missed because they stayed out to sea. For example, if there were no satellites today, T.S. Humberto  might be missed. It looks like Humberto will be a hurricane but that it will also be mostly a fish storm and stay way out in the Atlantic.

humberto

So here’s the bottom line: If T.S. Humberto becomes a hurricane today or tonight, the 2013 season will NOT set (or tie) a record for latest forming first hurricane. If it waits until tomorrow to gain hurricane strength, it will tie the record from 2002.

In the mean time, the weather in Central Florida is almost delightful for September 10th. Our daytime highs this time of year are normally 90. We should get there today, but we are NOT seeing much in the way of rain or storms. The blue sky is a sign of dry air. That dry air is gobbling up most of the coastal showers and keeping the inland areas dry. Brevard, Volusia and Flagler counties have a pretty good shot at some coastal rain, but that will just about do it for today. Rain chances are only about 20%

I’ll check back in later..

And I will see  you with the latest on Humberto at 5, 6, 7, and 11 on Local 6.

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