Welcome to Hurricane Season 2016! We all know that the season started way back there on June 1st, but the action is just now starting. We are already tracking the “F” storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona. That system is now moving NW through the Atlantic as a Tropical Depression. It looks to not be much of a threat to anyone except shipping lanes.

fiona

 

Next up we will have a Tropical Storm named Gaston. Gaston will be WAY across the ocean. As I am writing this the models for the system will become Gaston all agree that it will be a pretty big, well defined, hurricane. They also all agree that Gaston will also stay out to sea, be a huge concern for shipping lanes, and remain a “Fish Storm” that never hits land.Check the models below:

Gaston models

 

The other system is the one that will cause us the most concern. Right now this system is called Invest 99. Its actually closer to us, will be more of the threat, but will end up with the “H” name. So lets be clear, the next named storm is Gaston. It will never be a threat. The next “threat” is from Invest 99/Hermine. For the last 24 hours each model run has moved the potential track of this system to the east. This is the latest set:

Hermine models

Here is a satellite shot of all 3 systems together.

satshotofall3

What is left of T.S. Fiona is there. You can easily spot Invest 90, that will be Gaston, over on the right hand side of the pic. It’s only half way visible in this picture, but you can see how HUGE it is . Right in the middle is Invest 99/Hermine. It’s going to take some time for this one to develop. It’s spinning already but is not well defined. No perfect center, its still very wide. I’m not expecting rapid intensification here. The National Hurricane Center lists the chances like this:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

That’s a good call. It will be something we have to watch closely. It’s 5 days away from having a name… If it really becomes a player in our forecast it will be on a Friday through Sunday time line. It will be mentioned here on the blog, all over Twitter, Facebook, and will be featured in every weathercast on News 6 at 4, 5,6,7, and 11.

Keep in mind that we just now beginning the start of the meat of the season. The graphic below shows the ramp up in action we look for after August 1st. The actual peak of the season is September 10th.

The next week is just one week of many that we REALLY have to pay attention.

peakofseason

Oh, and for record… today is just flat out HOT. Look for the high at OIA to be 95 with a Heat Index of at least 102. Rain chances are low, low, low, at only 20%. If it does not rain, it gets REALLY hot.

 

 

 

Advertisements