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I’m sitting here in Orlando watching my beloved Dolphins struggle against the Patriots. I am so happy to be able to watch them on this last Sunday of the regular season. I am not happy that they are getting thumped. Such is life. It appears the Dolphins will still not be champions in 2017.

I’m just hopping on here for a quick update. Today is a 10 on the Sorrells Scale.

sorrellsscale10

It really is a perfect afternoon. The high today will be about 81 in Orlando. Tonight the fog, that was here this morning, will return late.

A chance of rain returns on Tuesday.

Speaking of returning, my vacation is OVER. It’s always a bummer to see the vacation end… but I am blessed to have a gig I love. Totally blessed. I will be back on the newscast tomorrow starting at 4 P.M. Please tune in.

The stats on 2016 are in. Can you guess how hot last year was? The final numbers for 2016 in Orlando places it as the 4th warmest year on record. I knew it was a hot one, I didn’t know it was gonna be in the top 5. Here are the stats released from the NWS in Melbourne this morning.

Check out the numbers.  I’m going back to the game.

See you soon.

Temperatures...

Both December and 2016 were in the top 5 warmest on record for the
majority of primary climate sites across east central Florida. Here
are the average temperature rankings for both periods at Daytona
Beach, Orlando, Melbourne and Vero Beach...

December 2016:

Site:     Avg Temp/Departure(F):    Rank:
Daytona       65.7 (+5.2)        7th Warmest* (Records Began 1923)
Orlando       68.8 (+6.2)        4th Warmest  (Records Began 1892)
Melbourne     69.5 (+6.5)        4th Warmest  (Records Began 1937)
Vero Beach    70.8 (+6.2)        3rd Warmest  (Records Began 1942)

*Ties 2007

Year 2016:

Site:     Avg Temp/Departure(F):    Rank:
Daytona       72.7 (+1.8)        5th Warmest
Orlando       74.2 (+1.4)        4th Warmest
Melbourne     74.4 (+2.0)        3rd Warmest
Vero Beach    74.5 (+1.4)        5th Warmest

Precipitation...

Well below normal precipitation continued into December across most
of the region, with this past month ranking as Melbourne`s 4th
driest December. However, year end rainfall totals were generally
near to above normal for many locations in east central Florida,
especially at Vero Beach where 2016 ranked as their 10th wettest
year.

December 2016:

Site:      Total Precip/Departure:      Rank(If in Top 10):
Daytona          0.70" (-1.93")
Orlando          2.52" (-0.06")
Melbourne        0.32" (-2.25")             4th Driest
Vero Beach       2.14" (-0.05")

*Ties 2007

Year 2016:

Site:      Total Precip/Departure:      Rank(If in Top 10):
Daytona         44.64"  (-4.98")
Orlando         54.30"  (+3.57")
Melbourne       59.64"  (+7.64")
Vero Beach      65.30" (+13.43")            10th Wettest

Back to Back record weather days. Yesterday it was the heat, today it’s the rain.

As of right now Daytona Beach and Orlando have both set record rainfall for the date.

recordstue

Other totals for the day are impressive. One viewer in Edgewater in Volusia county is reporting more than 7 inches of rain.recordrain

As we go through the night we will have the cold front moving over Central Florida. The front should clear Orlando around daybreak. Most of our showers will end as the front passes, but before it stops we should have 2 to 4 more inches.

That will mean an end to the rain and a beginning for the colder air. The low tonight drops to 57… the high tomorrow will crawl back to 64.

The Forecast for Thanksgiving Thursday will Fantastic if you like it cool. The high will be 67 under a sunny sky.

For Black Friday the weather looks great,..you could not PAY me to go shopping, but if you do hit the stores for deals, the weather will be GREAT. Look for more sunshine on Friday with a high of 66.

Saturday and Sunday both look nice with the highs making it back to the mid 70s and no chance of rain.

I can’t really remember the last time the Perseid meteor shower was forecast to be visible in Central Florida. So many times we end up with too much cloud cover, too much tropical action, or too much moon light. But this year, starting tonight, things look good for star gazers to get a good show.

The Perseids arrive each year as the Earth passes through the debris left behind from the comet Swift-Tuttle. There are other meteor showers, but none as bright and active as the Perseids.  At its peak you can usually spot at least one “shooting star” per hour.

I took this map from skyandtelescope.com:

PerseidRadiant_m-1

This graphic explains where to look for the best viewing. Basically stare toward the north-east, just below the constellation Cassiopeia the Queen, and wait. Keep in mind the later you try to view it, the better the chance of a great show. If you can’t stay up late tonight, tomorrow night is also a peak viewing night. Same drill, the later the better. If you see lots of action let me know.

Now the tropics. So far Florida has been spared too much angst this season. But today is only August 11th… Tuesday will the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Charley. I’m not here to say we will see the kind of season we saw in 2004 anytime soon, but I do want you to understand that in 2004 by this date, we had yet to get past the “C” named storm. This year we have already used up A, B, C, and D. This has been an active season. It promises to become more so in the next 6 weeks. The peak of hurricane season does not come until September 10th.

peakofseason

Yes, it’s been a good season for Florida so far, but we have SO far to go. Hang on, the action is just getting started.

I’m going to have dinner with my family now. Enjoy the Perseid meteor shower tonight.

I will see you tomorrow at 5, 6, 7 and 11 on Local 6 News.

 

Wow… I have not been at work for a looooong time. I just spent 12 days in Tennessee. Week one was all business –  I was at the AMS Broadcast Conference. It just happened to be held in Nashville, the city of my birth. The next week I was on vacation. I also spent that week in Tennessee at my Mom’s house. It’s the most time I’ve spent in Tennessee since December 1985.

I will use this blog to discuss my impressions from the AMS conference,  AND my thoughts of my former home town, at a later date. For now, I want to get back to work.

The tropics are about to come alive! We jump started this tropical season with not one, but two (count ’em , two) early season storms. We are tracking a new wave in the Atlantic that looks like it has a pretty good shot at becoming storm number 3. It would be name T.S. Chantal if it can get its act together.

This is what it looked like Sunday:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-short.html

The latest model runs all seem to want to make it grow into a weak tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. Most of them are keeping it well east of Florida.

storm_95

The GFS has it south of Puerto Rico by Wednesday… the Canadian has it as a much bigger system heading to Charleston by next weekend.  The bottom line here is we will spend this week watching this wave grow day by day and checking on it from model run to model run.

In the mean time the drier air was a gift over the weekend. The race at Daytona was excellent Saturday night, and Sunday turned out to be a great day all over Central Florida. The Rip Current risk is still the big issue on the coast. The surf was really rough this weekend. As we head into a new work week it will take a couple of days for the regular afternoon storms to get going again. By mid-week the rain chances should be back to about 30%.

I’ll wrap this up for now… and post an update on the topics during the day on Monday.

And I will return to air waves on Local 6 News Monday afternoon at 5 p.m.

See you then!

 

 

Finally it is here. The Championship game for College Football. For me it’s bigger than the Super Bowl. I know for most Americans the Super Bowl is the supreme sports event of the year, but I’m a college ball geek, not a NFL die hard. Now don’t get me wrong. The Dolphins are my team in the NFL. I still love the Bengals and the Lions. This year I’m all about Peyton Manning and the Broncos going all the way. I’m just saying that for as much time as I spend with the NFL it pales in comparison to the time I spend with NCAA Football. I just LOVE college football. Example: I went to 2 different games this year. One was the University of North Carolina vs. Duke game in Durham back in October. The other was the University of Florida hosting the University of Louisiana Lafayette (Both GREAT games that went down to the wire) How many NFL games did I attend this season? Not a single one. I watched the Dolphins on TV, but I never made the drive down for a game. I love the Dolphins; I just don’t have the same passion for the pro game.

So tonight I will work my shows at Local 6, rush home for dinner for a few minutes, watch as much of the game as I can on TV, drive back to work listening to the game on radio, then finish the game while working on the 11 o’clock show at WKMG.

But what about the forecast? Well in Orlando things are improving. Our chilly morning is giving way to sunshine as I’m writing this blog. In Miami the rain chance is still in the forecast. I keep watching ESPN and the “Experts” as they analyze the game. NONE of them have mentioned the weather. Here’s the deal …it might actually rain. Rain chances are only about 20%. But Sun Life Stadium (home of the fabulous Dolphins ) is an open air stadium. Do you remember the Super Bowl when Peyton Manning and the Colts won? That game was in this stadium. It poured rain that evening. That is not the kind of rain I’m looking for this time around. No huge rain system rolling in, more of a passing shower that could make it just a little on slippery side for the speedsters. Any rain at all would be better for the Irish. I know that old ball coaches always say the rain and sloppy conditions always favor the defense. I think any slop on field, any rain, and any slick turf goes against the Tide.

You can track the radar in Miami.

See here’s the deal. You know all that talk you always hear about how much faster and quicker the SEC teams are than the rest of the country? Well that is all true. The times the SEC teams get schooled by Big 10 teams (and Notre Dame is built like a Big 10 team) is when it rains or snows. Like the Citrus bowl in 2010 when LSU got knocked around by Penn State on that AWFUL field? Penn State won in a close game that LSU should have won big. The difference was that torn up field. It was like playing in a snow storm. The field was wet and muddy. It had been wrecked by a game a few days before…it took away the speed factor for LSU. Penn State gets the win.

Tonight don’t look for enough rain to make the field a mess. Look for passing showers that might make it slick for a few minutes. Not enough to make the field a Midwestern quagmire.

For that reason…I’m looking for very little rain during tonight’s game. And I’m looking for Bama to roll. Good field conditions means that “Speed Kills” and Bama has more speed. Of course we’ve seen this kinda talk before…like in ’92 when Bama smacked the University of Miami for the title. No one picked Bama that year. The same thing in ’03 when The Ohio State took out Miami in overtime. I think I was the only person on the planet that publicly picked the Buckeyes. In in all honesty, it would be good for college football for a non-SEC team to finally win the title again. This Bama team is not as strong on defense as the Champs from the last few years. But I still think they are strong (and fast) enough.

I pick Bama by two touchdowns.

Oh and keep in mind. I’m Southern, I was born in the south, make my living in the south, I’m raising my daughters in the south…I have SEC in my DNA. So yes, that makes me a homer. But it doesn’t make me wrong:-)

Thoughts?

Welcome to the weekend! I cannot begin to tell you how glad I am that I’m writing about the weekend and not a wrap up on how we are cleaning up after a hurricane. Last week we were still pretty close to the cone of Isaac. This week our weekend could not look better.

Before I launch into the weekend forecast I want to draw you attention to the full moon. The moon is set to rise at 7:41 this evening. It will a big ol’ pretty thing…and it will be a “Blue Moon”! I know that for most people a “Blue Moon” means a long time. But in our modern world it has come to mean the second full moon in one calendar month. This is the second time the moon has been full in August 2012. Ergo, we have a “Blue Moon” on our hands.  I remember the first time I ever heard of the second full moon in one month being a “Blue Moon”. It was way back in the  late 80s. My buddy Dale and his wife Angie had a son. It was their first-born child and he arrived at the end of May 1988. The news wires were all a buzz back then about it being a “Blue Moon”. I took note of it being the birthday of their child. A few years later they had a daughter…dang if she didn’t come in, on New Years Eve, under a “Blue Moon”.  I’m not so sure they even know that.  It’s really not important, just interesting. And for more interest, this is the last time we will have a “Blue Moon” until July 2015. Step outside at some point tonight and enjoy that moon. And, if you can, say a little prayer for Neil Armstrong.

 

The weekend. Well our weekend looks AMAZING! Take a look at the forecast page from JustWeather.com

The bottom line is the weekend looks warm, but rain free! All the way through until Tuesday before real rain chances return.

So, go enjoy the weekend. And make sure to check out that moon.

See you  on Local 6.

The eyes of the world are on Orlando! Okay, maybe it’s a bit dramatic, but this is going to be a VERY busy week, and weekend, for Central Florida.  I’m glad to be able to tell you that, for the most part, the weather is going to awesome with just a chance of rain Friday afternoon.

By far the biggest crowd to assemble for any event will be in Daytona Beach. Today (Wednesday) is a practice day at the track. Tomorrow the Gatorade Duels run. Start time is set for 1 p.m.. The forecast is good. The temperature at start time tomorrow will be about 79 degrees. Winds will be from the SSW 10-15, gusts up to 23 mph. By 6 p.m. the temp will have fallen to 71. Not a bad day for racing. Then big changes happen. A cold front passes on Friday afternoon and brings a 30% chance of rain. The 500 starts Sunday at 1p.m. The forecast is: Partly Cloudy, Temp. 65, winds E 10-15… that means the “set up” for the cars will be a LOT different for the cooler 500 than it will be for the 80 degree Gatorade Duels. It will be interesting to see which team makes the best adjustments. But all the races should be dry.

For Nascar fans interested in historical weather data, the NWS in Melbourne has a great page with more stats than you could ever want.

I’ve seen estimates that 100,000 people will be in town over the next four days for N.B.A. All-Star activities. (I do question numbers like that, but I want the weekend to be a success so I’m gonna “go with it”) The Amway Center only seats about 20,000, but there are other dozens of other events and parties along with the game that will attract crowds, including the huge N.B.A. Jam Session at the Orange County Convention Center. Outside the Amway, the Sprint Pregame concert will happen on Church Street Sunday night. It starts at 5 o’clock with headline act Gym Class Heroes. The forecast looks amazing. The temp will be 71, the “feels like” temp will be 68, no threat of rain. We’ll have a nice breeze from the east. Just a wonderful night for showing off the City Beautiful to a world-wide audience.

Sunday morning the Disney Princess Half Marathon will run. It will start at 5:45… YIKES! I’m just never gonna be one that wants to get out and run that early. I do admire those who do make it happen. The temp. will be 52 degrees at start time. It will feel like 48 or 49 with the wind from the east at 10-15. Most of the runners will finish before the temperature gets above 56. By 10 a.m. the temp. will be 58 degrees under a partly cloudy sky.

For me, I’m going to seriously try to avoid ALL the crowds, stay close to home and enjoy as much of events as I can on the big screen at Casa De Sorrells. For those who have tickets to any of these events you should have perfect weather… enjoy!

Weekend

I’ll have updates as the weekend gets closer.

See you on Local 6.

I LOVE Halloween. It’s my second favorite holiday behind Christmas. I’ve always enjoyed the season. When I was a child there was nothing like the anticipation of getting my costume ready… just DYING for the sun to get low on the horizon and the time to arrive for us to head out for trick-or-treating. Of course I eventually got too old to go out knocking on doors for candy. I didn’t make that decision, my mother had to tell me. I was really shocked that she thought I was too old… now I get it, but not then.

After I started handing out candy every year instead of begging for it, I always dressed up as a vampire. I have cool fangs, a black cape and a natural hairline for the part. But I don’t do that anymore. The new age of the vampire has changed the vampire look from Dracula or Barnabas Collins to a dark-eyed forever teen like those kids in the “Twilight” movie series. I can pull off some looks… forever teen is NOT one of them.

This year I get to dress as me for Halloween. I’ll be working until about 7:30 on the newscast at Local 6. Then I drive home, see my kids for an hour, pass out some candy and head back to the studio around 9:30 to prep for the 11 o’clock newscast. It’s not as cool as dressing up as an evil character, but I’m very cool with having a job.

Speaking of that job, here’s the Halloween forecast for Central Florida.

Expect the day to be a mix of clouds and sun. Still a bit breezy with wind from the NNE between 5 and 15 mph. Rain chances are only about 20%. I really think the best shot at rain is in the afternoon between noon and 5 pm. The showers should clear before the “spooks come out for candy.” I think the closer you are to the coast the more likely you will see showers. Temps will be in the low 70s as the sun sets. Not too hot for most costumes.

Good luck and have a safe and Happy Halloween!

Good Morning. I just walked my dog and lordy is it hot already. I can almost always judge the kind of day it’s going to be based on my dog’s reaction to the morning. This morning he was in NO mood to walk. That tells me it’s going to be a long hot day. Of course, some days he perks right up and walks like a champ and then the afternoons turn out to be stormy. I guess what I’m trying to say is Boots is really good at current conditions, i.e. now-casting. Not so good at forecasting for later. Either way, it’s hot, and my dog hates it.

Tropics. Okay, it’s day  5 of the Tropical Storm season. So far, so good. The last invest did not grow up to be anything. That was invest 91 that rolled right over us and brought rain last week. Great to get the rain, even greater that the storm never developed into anything bigger. Right now we are watching invest 94. It is in the western Caribbean. This is a satellite shot from JustWeather.com

Overnight the system became a little better organized. Right now the Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 48 hours. It’s a game of wait and see. As you look at the system just know that it, like most systems this early, will be a right-handed system. That means all the action will develop to the right-hand side of the center. We’ll be watching and waiting all week-long with this one. It shouldn’t ramp up quickly. It will take some time for it to do whatever it’s going to do. Check out the latest models for it. There is no consensus and the models look like a squashed bug.

The area is always worth watching this time of year. See graphics below:

The pic on the top is the formation grounds and tracks for most June systems. The one on the bottom I ripped from one of my favorite guys Max Mayfield. Max also writes a blog for JustWeather.com and is part of team coverage for our sister station WPLG in Miami.  This graphic show the actual formation points of every June system (tropical and sub-tropical)  since 1851. How cool is that?

Alright I need to do family time now.

Todays forecast: High 92…almost no chance for rain. The blue sky means there is still dry air aloft, and you will have wind from the E/NE 5-10 mph.

Enjoy! I’ll check back in later.

TS

Holy Smokes, it’s June 1st. Where did May go? Seems like last week we were wrapping up the Kentucky Derby and now it’s the first day of hurricane season.  I have to admit I’m at a point in my life where things are passing about twice (or maybe 3 times) as fast as they should. It’s all a part of getting older.

This is the day every year when I have to look in the mirror and say “okay, just hang in there until October.”  The next four months are tough. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the toughest part is usually August and September. By October things begin to slow down. In October I can see light at the end of the tunnel. The first cold front arrives in October and life gets a lot easier. Football season is in full swing.  Yep, I’d take October over June any day, all day.  

With that said, it is time to address the 2011 hurricane season.

If you missed the Local 6 Special “Surviving The Storms,” just click here. It runs about an hour. If you only have a couple of minutes, click on the link and fast forward until you hit the Elizabeth Hart piece on the Hurricane Hunters. It’s very cool, I think you’ll like it.

The forecast from Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray  calls for an above average season. So does the NOAA forecast. But when all is said and done the only forecast that really matters is the one that says a hurricane is going to hit YOU! We are at the level of skill in forecasting that the seasonal forecast gets close in most years. We are NO WHERE near being able to forecast in advance where the storms will tend to strike. Worst than that, when we do have a system to track, our models do not do a very good job of forecasting the intensity of the system but we do have confidence in the track. The strength or category of what the storm will become not so much. There is still much we have to learn about hurricanes… weather in general for that matter.

Today we have a system moving in from the northeast. It’s an invest. Remember what an invest is? It’s an area that the hurricane center decided to give special attention. It will be “investigated,” tracked, monitored. The hurricane center will run models on it. Some grow up to be storms. Some go on to be nothing. This is one that has not grown up. It will, however, bring us much-needed rain and some wind through the afternoon.  As I’m writing this the first showers are arriving in Flagler and Volusia counties.

Track the action right here.

Once we get past the rain today we return to dry and hot conditions for the weekend.

I don’t mind the heat… as long as the hurricanes stay away.

Here’s to a calm season. I’ll check back in later as today’s storms roll across the area.

Tom Sorrells

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