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Hi there. I am not a happy camper right now. The Dolphins are on WKMG…but they are NOT winning. I wanna take a break and give you an update on the Supermoon.

#1 The whole things starts at 8:11 P.M. That is the moment that the Moon begins to move in the shadow of the Earth. Cool stuff!

#2 Right at 10:47 is when it hits its max. If you can see it then it will be spectacular. Which brings us to then next point.

#3 Have you seen radar? Just click the link below. In a nutshell…”It’s gonna rain.”

http://weather.clickorlando.com/

and even though the rain will come to an end before the eclipse of the “Supermoon” I don’t believe the clouds will break long for us to enjoy the eclipse.. So the Supermoon looks more like it will be a Superbust for us in Central Florida. Bummer.

Supermoon

If only the sky were as clear as it is in this graphic from News 6.

In the meantime there is a Coastal Flood Advisory for Flagler, Volusia, and Brevard counties through tomorrow night.

Here is how the NWS put it in their discussion this afternoon.

 COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO LUNAR
  CYCLE...AND A BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELL INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE
  MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG
  THE EAST COAST BEACHES AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL
  WATERS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUNUP TO
  THE BASE OF THE DUNES IS ALSO EXPECTED AT MANY EAST CENTRAL
  FLORIDA BEACHES NEAR THE HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS SUNDAY EVENING BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9
  PM...MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM AND MONDAY EVENING
  BETWEEN 8 PM AND 930 PM.

* IMPACTS...INUNDATION OF WATER MAY OCCUR IN LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR
  THE EAST COAST BEACHES AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH
  MONDAY.

Again it's a bummer about the clouds and the eclipse, but the flooding is a lot more troublesome. 
I'm going to go back and watch the Dolphins now. They are still my team no matter what. I will return to the studio tomorrow at 4 P.M. on News 6. 

Hope to see you there.

Back to Back record weather days. Yesterday it was the heat, today it’s the rain.

As of right now Daytona Beach and Orlando have both set record rainfall for the date.

recordstue

Other totals for the day are impressive. One viewer in Edgewater in Volusia county is reporting more than 7 inches of rain.recordrain

As we go through the night we will have the cold front moving over Central Florida. The front should clear Orlando around daybreak. Most of our showers will end as the front passes, but before it stops we should have 2 to 4 more inches.

That will mean an end to the rain and a beginning for the colder air. The low tonight drops to 57… the high tomorrow will crawl back to 64.

The Forecast for Thanksgiving Thursday will Fantastic if you like it cool. The high will be 67 under a sunny sky.

For Black Friday the weather looks great,..you could not PAY me to go shopping, but if you do hit the stores for deals, the weather will be GREAT. Look for more sunshine on Friday with a high of 66.

Saturday and Sunday both look nice with the highs making it back to the mid 70s and no chance of rain.

The Season Is Upon Us.

It’s that time again. Time for all the experts to playing the guessing game, time for you to prepare, and time for the annual “Surviving The Storms” Local 6 Hurricane Special. The special this year will air this Friday night at 8:00 P.M. on Local 6.

More about the special in a moment, first let’s talk numbers.

NOAA has issued its forecast for the upcoming season. As you might expect the numbers are high. Last season was the third busiest season on record. There is no reason to expect that this year will be much better. Some years we talk a great deal about the El Nino effect and how it helps to shut down the number of tropical systems. This year there is NO El Nino. Ergo, the tropics are free to rage. The entire Atlantic basin is also very warm for this time of year. And there is also the fact that we are in an “active time frame” for hurricane seasons. Add all that together and you get the numbers below.

seasonforecast

Of course the deciding factor for whether this becomes a “bad season” or not is if we get hit here in Central Florida. Back in 2004 we lived through what many would call the worst season EVER. In reality, 2005 was worse when you look at overall numbers of storms. But in 2005, none of those systems hit Central Florida directly; so for people here it wasn’t nearly as bad as 2004. Bottom line: The numbers for the seasonal forecast are alarming, but they don’t mean much.

What does mean something? You being ready, that means something. We do a hurricane special every year here at Local 6. Most media outlets around here do. This time I think we have a better special than I have seen in years. All the members of the Local 6 Weather Department are involved. Meteorologist Troy Bridges has a report on Command Center possibilities in the event of a major storm. Meteorologist Julie Broughton went to Miami for a visit to the National Hurricane Center and has a great story on the newest technology for storm surge forecasting. Meteorologist Elizabeth Hart has a VERY cool story about how the Navy used to track hurricanes before satellites. It’s a story you will see “Only on 6” as our promotions department likes to say. I also have a story about the “Wall of Wind.” I traveled to Miami to the campus of Florida International University for this story. This is what the “Wall of Wind” looks like…impressive, eh?

wallofwind

I was the only Meteorologist from Central Florida there… so again, it’s a story you will see “Only on 6”. I think I’m starting to get the hang of this promotion thing.

I also have a one-on-one interview with long time hurricane center Director Max Mayfield. Max is a gem of a human being. He is still active in retirement and has never stopped trying to warn, prepare, and save people. He will have a special message for Central Florida.

Here’s the truth: this hurricane special is not like all the others you will see. We get out of the studio, we go everywhere, show you different things, interview the experts in their labs, and do important stories in a fun and interesting way.

You know, the way TV is supposed to be.

Please watch, it’s Friday night at 8 on Local 6 WKMG.

We passed a big anniversary this past weekend. Saturday was August 13th, that is always a strange day for me because it always means Hurricane Charley.  It’s now been 7 years since Charley blasted through Central Florida.  I try not to focus on the date so much, but I was spending the weekend down at the Gulf watching nice, calm and VERY warm water. The sunsets this weekend were just amazing.

 

 

 

 

 

While I was sitting there on the beach I mentioned that it was the anniversary of Charley to my family. We talked about it for a few minutes, then moved on. I was struck by just how nice the weather was this August 13th vs. August 13th of 2004.  Then I got to thinking about how a type of “Hurricane Amnesia” has taken over here in Central Florida. After 2004 just about everyone was concerned with hurricane season. I’m just not sure that is the case today. I think most people here are simply NOT  prepared. I don’t believe most people have enough water, food, cooking supplies, and battery power to be on their own, with no government help, for  3 to 7 days (or in some cases MUCH longer).  So, with that in mind, let me show you what is happening right now in the Atlantic and why I believe the hurricane season is about to get serious.

So far this season things have been active, just not strong. As of this writing (Tuesday August 16th) we have Tropical Storm Gert racing away from us to the NE into the open waters of the Atlantic. That makes 7 named storms already and not a single one of them has made it to “hurricane” status. That’s a record of sorts… it’s never happened that way before. But here’s where things get serious.

The actual peak of hurricane season is September 10th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We always talk about the “season” running from June 1st until November 30th, but the bulk of the action happens in the next 2 months.

Check out the current set for action.

Sea surface temps are REALLY warm

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now take a look at the areas for development today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, that looks peaceful enough. But notice ALL of those waves between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. That looks like a HUGE wave train. The waves are there, the surface temps are warm, the meat of the season is upon us… it’s about to get WILD!

What does wild mean to me? It means we are about to see hurricanes, not just tropical storms, and plenty of them named in the next 6 weeks. The first 7 names were gentle this year.  I believe there is no way the next 7 will be. I believe we’ll have 3 of these hurricanes go cat 3 before the end of September. We will have two or three out there at one time. I really believe it’s “Showtime” for the Atlantic season.

The last reason I’m convinced the season is about to crank up is the Madden Julian Oscillation is about to pulse around to the Atlantic. When we get the “pulse” over our side of the world the waves get stronger and the season gets meaner.

And one final note: For some reason the name Hurricane Jose scares me. Not that I can explain it, it just sounds like a Hugo, or Andrew, or something really mean.

Here’s to hoping that I am WAY big wrong and the season slows down from here. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

See you tonight at 5, 5:30, 6, 7 and 11 on Local 6 News.

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