The 11 p.m. update for T.S. Humberto STILL has winds of only 70 mph. That means, at midnight,  this season will tie the 2002 season for having the latest forming first hurricane of the season. Early blog still holds. The models have Humberto becoming an 80 mph hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned!

The 5 p.m. update from the NHC has T.S. Humberto with winds of 70 mph. So, almost a hurricane, but not yet. Everything in the blog below still stands. We’ll see if we can get our first hurricane of the season with the 11 p.m. update.

Yes, really.

Today is September 10th.  Usually this is where I tell everyone to “take a breath, it gets easier from here.” This year not so much.
peakofseason

So far this year the easy part is behind us. The action has been delayed by a host of items including too much shear at the right spots, too much dry air over the Atlantic, and a series of systems that battled each other for development.

Today we have T.S. Humberto. If all goes as projected, Humberto will become the first hurricane of the 2013 season sometime tonight. That’s really late. Since 1960 the latest date the first hurricane of the season has ever formed is September 11th. That happened back in 2002 when Hurricane Gustav finally came to life. That season there were 5 more storms, and one Tropical Depression,  after Gustav. Two of those, Isidore and Lili, were nasty hurricanes and became retired names.  So if you use 2002 as a guide, and that’s a random guide, we could easily have 5 or 6 more systems to track before shutting the season down.

Keep in mind there have been hurricane seasons in the past where no storms were known to form, but that was before the satellites were flying. Back in those days there very well could have been hurricanes that were missed because they stayed out to sea. For example, if there were no satellites today, T.S. Humberto  might be missed. It looks like Humberto will be a hurricane but that it will also be mostly a fish storm and stay way out in the Atlantic.

humberto

So here’s the bottom line: If T.S. Humberto becomes a hurricane today or tonight, the 2013 season will NOT set (or tie) a record for latest forming first hurricane. If it waits until tomorrow to gain hurricane strength, it will tie the record from 2002.

In the mean time, the weather in Central Florida is almost delightful for September 10th. Our daytime highs this time of year are normally 90. We should get there today, but we are NOT seeing much in the way of rain or storms. The blue sky is a sign of dry air. That dry air is gobbling up most of the coastal showers and keeping the inland areas dry. Brevard, Volusia and Flagler counties have a pretty good shot at some coastal rain, but that will just about do it for today. Rain chances are only about 20%

I’ll check back in later..

And I will see  you with the latest on Humberto at 5, 6, 7, and 11 on Local 6.

I can’t really remember the last time the Perseid meteor shower was forecast to be visible in Central Florida. So many times we end up with too much cloud cover, too much tropical action, or too much moon light. But this year, starting tonight, things look good for star gazers to get a good show.

The Perseids arrive each year as the Earth passes through the debris left behind from the comet Swift-Tuttle. There are other meteor showers, but none as bright and active as the Perseids.  At its peak you can usually spot at least one “shooting star” per hour.

I took this map from skyandtelescope.com:

PerseidRadiant_m-1

This graphic explains where to look for the best viewing. Basically stare toward the north-east, just below the constellation Cassiopeia the Queen, and wait. Keep in mind the later you try to view it, the better the chance of a great show. If you can’t stay up late tonight, tomorrow night is also a peak viewing night. Same drill, the later the better. If you see lots of action let me know.

Now the tropics. So far Florida has been spared too much angst this season. But today is only August 11th… Tuesday will the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Charley. I’m not here to say we will see the kind of season we saw in 2004 anytime soon, but I do want you to understand that in 2004 by this date, we had yet to get past the “C” named storm. This year we have already used up A, B, C, and D. This has been an active season. It promises to become more so in the next 6 weeks. The peak of hurricane season does not come until September 10th.

peakofseason

Yes, it’s been a good season for Florida so far, but we have SO far to go. Hang on, the action is just getting started.

I’m going to have dinner with my family now. Enjoy the Perseid meteor shower tonight.

I will see you tomorrow at 5, 6, 7 and 11 on Local 6 News.

 

trackc

And at 11 p.m. T.S. Chantal was named in the Atlantic. All the info from the earlier post is still true. WAY too close for comfort. Latest path has South Florida in the cone for day 5.

Here we go…

Wow… I have not been at work for a looooong time. I just spent 12 days in Tennessee. Week one was all business –  I was at the AMS Broadcast Conference. It just happened to be held in Nashville, the city of my birth. The next week I was on vacation. I also spent that week in Tennessee at my Mom’s house. It’s the most time I’ve spent in Tennessee since December 1985.

I will use this blog to discuss my impressions from the AMS conference,  AND my thoughts of my former home town, at a later date. For now, I want to get back to work.

The tropics are about to come alive! We jump started this tropical season with not one, but two (count ’em , two) early season storms. We are tracking a new wave in the Atlantic that looks like it has a pretty good shot at becoming storm number 3. It would be name T.S. Chantal if it can get its act together.

This is what it looked like Sunday:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-short.html

The latest model runs all seem to want to make it grow into a weak tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. Most of them are keeping it well east of Florida.

storm_95

The GFS has it south of Puerto Rico by Wednesday… the Canadian has it as a much bigger system heading to Charleston by next weekend.  The bottom line here is we will spend this week watching this wave grow day by day and checking on it from model run to model run.

In the mean time the drier air was a gift over the weekend. The race at Daytona was excellent Saturday night, and Sunday turned out to be a great day all over Central Florida. The Rip Current risk is still the big issue on the coast. The surf was really rough this weekend. As we head into a new work week it will take a couple of days for the regular afternoon storms to get going again. By mid-week the rain chances should be back to about 30%.

I’ll wrap this up for now… and post an update on the topics during the day on Monday.

And I will return to air waves on Local 6 News Monday afternoon at 5 p.m.

See you then!

 

 

It looks like a REALLY wet week is on the way for central Florida. The much talked about “tropical moisture” will it make a very wet run in the next 5 days.
Check out this map below that the National Weather Service posted Sunday afternoon. It has a bullseye over south Florida for HUGE rain. Some of that moisture looks like it will edge its way up to our yards. The numbers are impressive. Right now we are in the 4 to 5 inch range, but that could all change. We might be in the 8 inches of rain area before all is said and done.

Rain Forecast

The bulk of the moisture looks like it will arrive late in the week. We may have flood watches and warnings to deal with by Wednesday. As always, we’ll keep you posted.

As I’m writing this, Sunday night around 10:30, most of the showers are winding down. The rest of the overnight will be peaceful. But by 2 p.m. Monday afternoon it will be “Game On” again for tracking the storms.

I will check back again Monday afternoon. I’ll have a new look at the tropics, the radar and the rest of the week.

Sleep tight!

The Season Is Upon Us.

It’s that time again. Time for all the experts to playing the guessing game, time for you to prepare, and time for the annual “Surviving The Storms” Local 6 Hurricane Special. The special this year will air this Friday night at 8:00 P.M. on Local 6.

More about the special in a moment, first let’s talk numbers.

NOAA has issued its forecast for the upcoming season. As you might expect the numbers are high. Last season was the third busiest season on record. There is no reason to expect that this year will be much better. Some years we talk a great deal about the El Nino effect and how it helps to shut down the number of tropical systems. This year there is NO El Nino. Ergo, the tropics are free to rage. The entire Atlantic basin is also very warm for this time of year. And there is also the fact that we are in an “active time frame” for hurricane seasons. Add all that together and you get the numbers below.

seasonforecast

Of course the deciding factor for whether this becomes a “bad season” or not is if we get hit here in Central Florida. Back in 2004 we lived through what many would call the worst season EVER. In reality, 2005 was worse when you look at overall numbers of storms. But in 2005, none of those systems hit Central Florida directly; so for people here it wasn’t nearly as bad as 2004. Bottom line: The numbers for the seasonal forecast are alarming, but they don’t mean much.

What does mean something? You being ready, that means something. We do a hurricane special every year here at Local 6. Most media outlets around here do. This time I think we have a better special than I have seen in years. All the members of the Local 6 Weather Department are involved. Meteorologist Troy Bridges has a report on Command Center possibilities in the event of a major storm. Meteorologist Julie Broughton went to Miami for a visit to the National Hurricane Center and has a great story on the newest technology for storm surge forecasting. Meteorologist Elizabeth Hart has a VERY cool story about how the Navy used to track hurricanes before satellites. It’s a story you will see “Only on 6” as our promotions department likes to say. I also have a story about the “Wall of Wind.” I traveled to Miami to the campus of Florida International University for this story. This is what the “Wall of Wind” looks like…impressive, eh?

wallofwind

I was the only Meteorologist from Central Florida there… so again, it’s a story you will see “Only on 6”. I think I’m starting to get the hang of this promotion thing.

I also have a one-on-one interview with long time hurricane center Director Max Mayfield. Max is a gem of a human being. He is still active in retirement and has never stopped trying to warn, prepare, and save people. He will have a special message for Central Florida.

Here’s the truth: this hurricane special is not like all the others you will see. We get out of the studio, we go everywhere, show you different things, interview the experts in their labs, and do important stories in a fun and interesting way.

You know, the way TV is supposed to be.

Please watch, it’s Friday night at 8 on Local 6 WKMG.

Finally it is here. The Championship game for College Football. For me it’s bigger than the Super Bowl. I know for most Americans the Super Bowl is the supreme sports event of the year, but I’m a college ball geek, not a NFL die hard. Now don’t get me wrong. The Dolphins are my team in the NFL. I still love the Bengals and the Lions. This year I’m all about Peyton Manning and the Broncos going all the way. I’m just saying that for as much time as I spend with the NFL it pales in comparison to the time I spend with NCAA Football. I just LOVE college football. Example: I went to 2 different games this year. One was the University of North Carolina vs. Duke game in Durham back in October. The other was the University of Florida hosting the University of Louisiana Lafayette (Both GREAT games that went down to the wire) How many NFL games did I attend this season? Not a single one. I watched the Dolphins on TV, but I never made the drive down for a game. I love the Dolphins; I just don’t have the same passion for the pro game.

So tonight I will work my shows at Local 6, rush home for dinner for a few minutes, watch as much of the game as I can on TV, drive back to work listening to the game on radio, then finish the game while working on the 11 o’clock show at WKMG.

But what about the forecast? Well in Orlando things are improving. Our chilly morning is giving way to sunshine as I’m writing this blog. In Miami the rain chance is still in the forecast. I keep watching ESPN and the “Experts” as they analyze the game. NONE of them have mentioned the weather. Here’s the deal …it might actually rain. Rain chances are only about 20%. But Sun Life Stadium (home of the fabulous Dolphins ) is an open air stadium. Do you remember the Super Bowl when Peyton Manning and the Colts won? That game was in this stadium. It poured rain that evening. That is not the kind of rain I’m looking for this time around. No huge rain system rolling in, more of a passing shower that could make it just a little on slippery side for the speedsters. Any rain at all would be better for the Irish. I know that old ball coaches always say the rain and sloppy conditions always favor the defense. I think any slop on field, any rain, and any slick turf goes against the Tide.

You can track the radar in Miami.

See here’s the deal. You know all that talk you always hear about how much faster and quicker the SEC teams are than the rest of the country? Well that is all true. The times the SEC teams get schooled by Big 10 teams (and Notre Dame is built like a Big 10 team) is when it rains or snows. Like the Citrus bowl in 2010 when LSU got knocked around by Penn State on that AWFUL field? Penn State won in a close game that LSU should have won big. The difference was that torn up field. It was like playing in a snow storm. The field was wet and muddy. It had been wrecked by a game a few days before…it took away the speed factor for LSU. Penn State gets the win.

Tonight don’t look for enough rain to make the field a mess. Look for passing showers that might make it slick for a few minutes. Not enough to make the field a Midwestern quagmire.

For that reason…I’m looking for very little rain during tonight’s game. And I’m looking for Bama to roll. Good field conditions means that “Speed Kills” and Bama has more speed. Of course we’ve seen this kinda talk before…like in ’92 when Bama smacked the University of Miami for the title. No one picked Bama that year. The same thing in ’03 when The Ohio State took out Miami in overtime. I think I was the only person on the planet that publicly picked the Buckeyes. In in all honesty, it would be good for college football for a non-SEC team to finally win the title again. This Bama team is not as strong on defense as the Champs from the last few years. But I still think they are strong (and fast) enough.

I pick Bama by two touchdowns.

Oh and keep in mind. I’m Southern, I was born in the south, make my living in the south, I’m raising my daughters in the south…I have SEC in my DNA. So yes, that makes me a homer. But it doesn’t make me wrong:-)

Thoughts?

Welcome to the weekend! I cannot begin to tell you how glad I am that I’m writing about the weekend and not a wrap up on how we are cleaning up after a hurricane. Last week we were still pretty close to the cone of Isaac. This week our weekend could not look better.

Before I launch into the weekend forecast I want to draw you attention to the full moon. The moon is set to rise at 7:41 this evening. It will a big ol’ pretty thing…and it will be a “Blue Moon”! I know that for most people a “Blue Moon” means a long time. But in our modern world it has come to mean the second full moon in one calendar month. This is the second time the moon has been full in August 2012. Ergo, we have a “Blue Moon” on our hands.  I remember the first time I ever heard of the second full moon in one month being a “Blue Moon”. It was way back in the  late 80s. My buddy Dale and his wife Angie had a son. It was their first-born child and he arrived at the end of May 1988. The news wires were all a buzz back then about it being a “Blue Moon”. I took note of it being the birthday of their child. A few years later they had a daughter…dang if she didn’t come in, on New Years Eve, under a “Blue Moon”.  I’m not so sure they even know that.  It’s really not important, just interesting. And for more interest, this is the last time we will have a “Blue Moon” until July 2015. Step outside at some point tonight and enjoy that moon. And, if you can, say a little prayer for Neil Armstrong.

 

The weekend. Well our weekend looks AMAZING! Take a look at the forecast page from JustWeather.com

The bottom line is the weekend looks warm, but rain free! All the way through until Tuesday before real rain chances return.

So, go enjoy the weekend. And make sure to check out that moon.

See you  on Local 6.

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